The fog of war is pervasive, but one thing is clear as “Gulf War 3” escalates: governments around the world are counting the cost of their dependency on oil and gas. “The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” is the International Energy Agency’s take on the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which has seen oil and gas fields bombed and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz curtailed.
Oil prices are beyond $100 a barrel and inflation is picking up — even in the oil-and-gas-rich U.S. — while in Asia, governments are curtailing working days, limiting petroleum exports, and rationing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders. Beyond economic disruption, this conflict has exacted a tragic human toll, with thousands of lives lost and countless families shattered. Growth goals, job targets, food supplies and the future hopes of citizens around the world are at the mercy of traders and huge corporations that stand to benefit as prices skyrocket.
The environmental toll of this petro-fueled conflict extends far beyond human casualties, too. Oil infrastructure attacks have triggered massive ecological disasters, with crude oil spills contaminating marine ecosystems in the Persian Gulf, and refinery explosions releasing toxic pollutants that threaten migratory bird routes and coastal wetlands.
The war has also accelerated deforestation as nations scramble for other energy sources, like Indonesia, which is reportedly fast-tracking palm oil expansion for biofuel production. These ecological scars will persist long after the last barrel of oil is extracted from bombed wells.
Meanwhile, the climate emergency continues unabated even as geopolitical chaos dominates headlines. Each day of conflict delays the renewable energy transition while carbon emissions from damaged infrastructure surge, pushing us further from the 1.5°C target that scientists say is critical for preserving biodiversity hotspots from the Amazon to the Arctic. The communities most dependent on healthy ecosystems — Indigenous peoples, small-scale farmers and coastal populations — face a double burden: immediate suffering from energy price spikes, and long-term threats from accelerating climate breakdown and deepened inequality.
Dependence on fossil fuels is an addiction we can no longer afford, both financially and existentially. According to analysts at the clean energy think tank Ember, three-quarters of the world’s population live in fossil-importing countries. They write: “Net importers spent $1.7 trillion in 2024. If fuel prices rise, this number rises. For every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices, global net import costs rise by around $160 billion per year.”
History tells us the coming weeks and months will be painful. Previous major shocks in 1973 and 2022 had profound ramifications globally. The 2026 oil shock threatens the foundations of countries around the world. Money that could have been directed toward social security, welfare, development, health and education will instead be sent to subsidize spiraling energy costs.
The violence has cost many lives, leaving communities grieving while destabilizing regions already on edge. What makes this situation even crazier is that it does not have to be this way. There is a future where “electro-states” powered by a diverse range of renewable sources are unhooked from the fossil fuel rollercoaster, which increasingly appears to be out of control.
A new fossil-free vision
In 2026, we have the best chance yet to speed up this transition. Beginning later this week, a group of more than 50 countries will meet in Santa Marta, Colombia, to discuss plans to this end.
The First International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels is co-hosted by the governments of Colombia and the Netherlands and is the first of a series of diplomatic conferences organized to discuss fossil fuel phaseout, with the second one already scheduled to be held within a year.
This will kick-start discussions that will influence other processes later this year, like the COP30 Presidency Roadmaps, which won the backing of dozens of countries at the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, last November.
That governments are now committed to working up plans to first reduce and finally cut their dependence on oil, gas and coal is a critical first step. For decades, climate negotiations avoided explicitly mentioning fossil fuels, focusing instead on carbon accounting and efficiency. This is changing as the need for a managed phaseout becomes undeniable.
On a parallel track, the proposal for a complementary, global Fossil Fuel Treaty that manages a coordinated and equitable phaseout to finally end the destructive use of fossil fuels is gaining further strength.
The historic 2015 Paris Agreement regulates emissions, but does not govern the extraction or production of the coal, oil and gas that cause them. It’s time we took a further step to address this gap.
While sovereign energy plans are necessary, a purely national approach will lead to global failure. Current government plans already exceed the 1.5°C carbon budget, so we need a truly global plan that aligns these road maps through international cooperation.
Historical policy focused on reducing demand (via renewables and energy efficiency), assuming reductions in supply would follow. However, subsidies and industry incentives have kept supply high. Experts now argue we must cut with both blades of the scissors by reducing demand while simultaneously managing the decline of supply.
Breakthroughs often occur outside formal U.N. processes (e.g., the Ottawa Treaty on land mines). The Santa Marta conference and the coalition of courageous, committed countries supporting a Fossil Fuel Treaty represent a pragmatic strategy to overcome inertia in consensus-based negotiations.
In 2026, of all years, when wars in fossil fuel heartlands are crippling the planet, it’s time to say enough is enough.
“This crisis will accelerate what was already underway,” say energy analysts. Asia is now feeling the same chill as Europe did in 2022. The difference now is the alternatives to oil and gas are available and cheaper.
“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly,” goes an apocryphal quote credited to author Ernest Hemingway.
That inflection point is approaching. The falling cost of renewable energy, the emergence of new diplomatic processes, and growing cooperation around tools like a Fossil Fuel Treaty are converging with a war that has exposed the fragility of the fossil fuel system.
The end of fossil fuels is no longer a distant goal; it is an unfolding reality. The task now is to govern it — to build the international cooperation needed to make the transition fast, fair and orderly — rather than leaving it to be driven by crisis.
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This article by Mongabay is published here as part of the global journalism collaboration Covering Climate Now.
Tzeporah Berman is founder and chair of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative.
